7mÊÓƵ

To the Administrator Addressed (TAA) Correspondence

Attendance Projections for the 2027–2028 and 2028–2029 School Years

Background

The Attendance Projections module in the Foundation School Program (FSP) application in the 7mÊÓƵ Login (7mÊÓƵL) opened on Thursday, October 15, 2026. Attendance projections are estimates of student average daily attendance (ADA), enrollment, or full-time equivalent (FTE) counts by program or instructional setting. The 7mÊÓƵ (7mÊÓƵ) develops these attendance projections and will provide them to the Legislative Budget Board by March 1, 2027. The Legislature then uses these projections to determine the cost of public education for the next biennium (school years 2027–2028 and 2028–2029).

Methodology 

The Attendance Projections module is preloaded with 7mÊÓƵ’s projections for school years 2027–2028 and 2028–2029, which are developed using historical data and growth assumptions. Historically, 7mÊÓƵ has used a five-year growth rate for projections. However, because of pandemic-related disruptions, only three recent school years of reliable post-pandemic data are available for projection purposes: 2023–2024, 2024–2025, and 2025–2026. Because statewide ADA declined by 0.48 percent from 2023–2024 to 2025–2026, 7ÊÓƵ applied this decline as the statewide growth rate to project statewide ADA for 2027–2028 and 2028–2029.

Each school system’s initial attendance projection is calculated using its individual ADA growth rate and is then adjusted so that the combined projections reconcile to 7mÊÓƵ’s statewide projection.

For other programs and student populations, such as special education and bilingual education, 7mÊÓƵ uses a combination of each school system’s individual ADA growth rate and the statewide growth rate for the applicable program or population.

Note that the Attendance Projections module includes 7mÊÓƵ’s preloaded special education projections for the 2027–2028 and 2028–2029 school years under the new special education funding system. Although school systems began reporting tier of intensity and service group data for the first time during the 2026–2027 school year, the data will not be complete for all school systems until the 2026–2027 Public Education Information Management System (PEIMS) summer submission. Because the attendance projections are due before that data are complete, 7mÊÓƵ developed the special education projections this fall by mapping existing instructional arrangement FTEs to tiers of intensity using proportions from Special Education Funding Tool submissions. As with all projections in the Attendance Projections module, school systems may accept 7mÊÓƵ’s preloaded special education projections or enter their own.

For more information, see the , the l, and the Special Education Funding Update TAA letter dated May 28, 2026.

The Attendance Projections module will be collecting data for the optional Additional Days School Year (ADSY) program. Participating school systems will be required to indicate whether they intend to operate under the ½-day or ¾-day funding formula for ADSY. Additional information can be found on the ADSY webpage.

Please note: The 2026–2027 projections in the Attendance Projections module will not change the ADA and FTE data in the 2026–2027 Summary of Finances (SOF) reports. They are used as the baseline for projecting the 2027–2028 and 2028–2029 school years.

Next Steps: Action Required

School systems may enter their own projections or accept 7mÊÓƵ’s preloaded projections. School systems should consider local enrollment trends and other factors that could result in estimates different from 7mÊÓƵ’s projections to minimize significant settle-up adjustments. The Attendance Projections module will close at midnight on Tuesday, December 15, 2026. Failure to certify and submit the required attendance projections data by the deadline will result in 7mÊÓƵ using its own projections as part of the appropriations process for state aid calculations during the upcoming biennium.

Impact on School Systems 

For cash flow purposes, payments to school systems during the upcoming biennium will be based on the final attendance projections submitted to the Legislature. These ADA and FTE estimates will ultimately be shown in the Legislative Payment Estimate (LPE) column of the school year 2027–2028 and 2028–2029 SOF reports, are not subject to revision, and will be replaced with attendance data submitted through PEIMS each six-week reporting period throughout the school year. Final earnings will, as always, be based on actual ADA and FTE counts submitted to 7mÊÓƵ at the conclusion of each school year.

Please note: This submission impacts the data for fiscal years 2027–2028 and 2028–2029 used in the Financial Integrity Rating System of Texas (FIRST). School FIRST Indicator 15 and Charter FIRST Indicator 16 measure the difference between a school system’s attendance projections and the actual ADA reported to 7mÊÓƵ. They also measure whether a school system certified its projections. Please contact financialaccountability@tea.texas.gov if you have additional questions regarding FIRST.

Technical Assistance, Resources, and Contact Information 

The FSP application in 7mÊÓƵL requires a Pupil Projections User to enter information into the Attendance Projections module. The FSP application also requires that a designated District Approver, usually the superintendent, submit the attendance projections data to 7mÊÓƵ. If you already have a 7mÊÓƵL account but do not have access to the FSP application, please apply for access by clicking the My Application Accounts button found in the upper-left corner of the Self-Service menu in 7mÊÓƵL. If you already have access to the FSP application, please check that you have the appropriate role assigned to submit the data. You will need to select either the Pupil Projections User role or the District Approver role (usually the superintendent).

Your school system’s Service Account Manager must approve all requests for access to the FSP application and modifications to access via 7mÊÓƵL. (Note that Service Account Manager is a role within the 7mÊÓƵL system. Each employing organization must have at least one employee with Service Account Manager status.) If you have submitted a request for access or to modify access and it has not been granted, please consult with your superintendent or District Approver or check with your school system’s Service Account Manager to verify the status of the request before contacting 7mÊÓƵ.

For more information on the FSP System, including information on applying for specific roles in the system, please see the 7mÊÓƵ FSP System webpage.

For help accessing the FSP application or submitting attendance projections, please email adaprojections@tea.texas.gov or call 512-463-9622.